COMDEX 96: The Digital Cinema View
Roger B. Wyatt
Well there goes COMDEX in the rearview mirror. Visions of mobile, modular,
and fluid computing float in my head. They say 215,000 seekers of digital
enlightenment converged on Las Vegas. It seems about right to me. At times
it felt like being on the IRT (a New York subway) at rush hour all day.
COMDEX revealed a model of computing that was mobile, modular, fluid, and
transparent. From wearable computers to computers that masqueraded as desktop
ink blotters, the trend towards a less intrusive physical presence is gathering
momentum. Nick Negroponte's vision of wearable computing is ramping up.
It is clear that the Internet in general and the Web in particular is at
the center of contemporary computing. The trend towards the convergence
of computing and video continued. There were a variety of webcasting software
and services to facilitate video on the Web. In many ways COMDEX 96 signaled
new opportunities for digital image makers.
Andy, Bill, and Barksdale weigh in:
Wither personal computing? That question floated over the show like the
Fuji blimp. COMDEX celebrated the 25th anniversary of the development of
the microprocessor itself. Intel's 4004 was the little dab that did us.
Without the CPU (Central Processing Unit) your desktop is just a desktop.
With an anniversary like that, it was appropriate to look forward into the
future of computing. Are we looking at more Wintel on steroids? Is there
a webcentric Network Computer running Java the Hut and Netscape in our future?
What's up, Opendoc? To pontificate on these issues some seriously big kahunas
showed up to give the keynote speeches.
Hello Mr Chip
Andrew Grove not only is President and CEO of Intel, but he is one of the
co-founders of the company. His vision of the future was more of the same
only better, faster, and cheaper. Moore's Law was the ruler that led in
a straight line to the 10GHz cpu. That's gigahertz not a typo. Gordon Moore,
also a co-founder of Intel formulated one of the primary laws of computing.
CPUs double in capacity and halve in price every eighteen months. Now this
is serious voodoo economics. A chip with that kind of mojo would finish
editing your project before you started it.
Hello Mr. Bill
His Billness, Bill Gates, Chairman and CEO of Microsoft gave an MTV unplugged
presentation. Except for a few video clips Bill stood there, sometimes he
sat, and talked with the audience. He offered a view of a highly fluid and
responsive computing future. Does he actually use Windows 95? Much of the
view revolved around the importance of context to understanding. There would
be return-reciept email that would describe the recipient's reaction. Software
updates would become customized and automatic, based on the user's specific
utilization of the software. Software would send automatic bug reports always
including the context of the problem and user comments. Much of the Gates
view was of a kinder gentler computing that was transparent to the user,
computers tracking the gaze of the hacker, trying to anticipate what the
little nut behind the mouse was going to do next. Bill's view resonated
with the Negroponte/MIT Media Lab vision of ubiquitous computing, powerful
and transparent.
Not just barking at the Moon
Jim Barksdale, President and CEO of Netscape, offered a different vision
of the future of computing. His was the webcentric view. Forget icons, forget
arrows, user information is the interface. Email and the Web become intertwined.
Deep fusion. Information is not only pulled down but pushed out towards
the user. AI Agents. Wherever you are your information will follow. Code
name Constellation, Netscape will ship it in Q2 1997. Communication, integration,
usable across 17 platforms, it is a different view of ubiquitous computing.
Don't fall into the either / or trap. It will be an and / and future. Both
are exciting and useful futures for computing. They will interact in unexpected
ways.
TECH ALERT! Don't buy anything. Don't lose it, we're talkin computer here.
I mean you may want to get some stuff at the grocery store. Just don't buy
any tek until May or June. 56k modems on the way. That's why 33.6k modems
are so cheap right now. You want USB i/o ports. That's Universal Serial
Bus. Smile when you say that amigo. 127 daisy-chained peripherals can be
attached. Faster than SCSI, not as fast as Firewire (IEEE 1394). USB supports
hotswaping, hook up peripherals...take them off, see if I care, with the
machine on. Cool. Palmtops are going to squeeze (ohmygod that hurts) out
laptops as a product category. Modular palmtops running Windows CE that
that have a docking station with VGA, i/o, hard drive, full size keyboard.
Corel will have it. $500 for the basic stuff in Q2 97. Mitsubishi also in
Q2, Sharp color Zaurus, it's happening in Q2 97. Do we see a pattern here?
Modular computing.
What's it all about Techie?
Do you dream and work in a garage?
If you're an independent digital cinemamaker, an aficionado of the cyber-cinema,
a multi-media developer, an independent digital artist, then this show had
a lot of good news. The good news wasn't so much because of the announcement
of new software. The emphasis
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